Figures for economic growth in excess of 10 % per year have been common in China over recent years. That this is impressive is without doubt, a more interesting question though is what China’s future growth prospects are given current modes of production.
In a huge country like China it is difficult to get a holistic view of the whole economy; the complexity of the task is prohibitive. However, a close look at one sector and the use of one fundamental resource within it presents us with a partial view of its future sustainability and productive capacity. A recent paper entitled ‘Impacts of Cultivated Land Conversion on Environmental Sustainability and Grain Self Sufficiency in China’ by Shuhao Tan of Renmin University, explores patterns of land use within the agricultural sector.
China is a land poor country, the sheer weight of the population on existing land assets is huge and is expected to increase as measures of arable land area per head diminish due to population growth, land appropriation, increased urbanization and the onset of desertification. Professor Tan found that over the past fifteen years, actual levels of cultivable land in China have decreased from 132m hectares to 122 hectares a drop of 7.8%. This decline has not been offset by growth in agricultural productivity and thus inhibits the state goal of grain production levels appropriate for self-sufficiency
These observations are not particularly new, but the detailed form of this development is. Aside from aggregate figures, the actual change in the nature of grain production is an important development. Prof. Tan shows that over the past ten years, grain production has largely shifted to the North of China where rainfalls are erratic, yields are lower and water resources scarce. Professor Tan argues that this development puts pressure upon the environment in these areas and will mean that grain production levels will become unstable and insufficient in the near future.
The clear implication of this paper is that as China develops and as consumer tastes change to require more grain intensive foodstuffs, China’s productive capacity will not be able to meet burgeoning demand – with further knock-on effects for food prices on both domestic and global markets in excess of those witnessed over the past two years. The onus here is to make agriculture more productive via; protection of existing land assets, field improvement technologies, irrigation initiatives, crop management education and the development of land rental markets.
Tags: China Agricultural Sector, China environment, China GDP, China Grain Self-Sufficiency, China irrigation, China land rental, China productivity, China Water
